Labour Wiped Out, Tories Toppled: Reform Tears Through Pelsall
By-elections usually come and go without anyone batting an eyelid. Yet this by-election should rattle the whole nation.
By-elections usually come and go without anyone batting an eyelid. Most never make it past the parish noticeboard or a couple of paragraphs in the local rag. Under normal circumstances, no one beyond Pelsall would have given this one a second thought. But here’s the rub: the ramifications of this by-election should rattle the whole nation. They won’t — not yet — but they should
Reform UK took the ward with Graham Eardley edging the Conservatives by just 55 votes. Nothing dramatic on its own, just 1,231 ballots in the box. But the turnout tells you plenty: 32%. That’s not bad for a council by-election. In fact, compared to some Birmingham wards where Labour “landslides” are built on turnouts in the low 20s, it’s positively healthy.
The Conservatives, who once swaggered through Pelsall as if it was stitched into their DNA, were left muttering about “the national picture.” Their man Lee Chapman did his best stiff-upper-lip, conceding Reform had “edged it” while quietly pointing the finger at Westminster. But the brutal truth is this: if the Tories can’t hold Pelsall, they’re pretty much toast.
Labour? Ah, Labour. Collapse doesn’t even cover it. They didn’t just stumble in Pelsall, they fell through the floor. From 510 votes in 2024 down to a pitiful 125 this time — three-quarters of their support gone in the space of eighteen months. That’s not apathy, that’s haemorrhage. And where did it go? Straight into Reform’s arms. Add that to the Tory slippage and you’ve got the perfect storm: Labour wiped out, Conservatives stripped bare, and Reform walking off with the prize. If that doesn’t set off klaxons in Southside, nothing will.
And it’s not just this year. Scroll back through the archive and the story is all decline. In 2016 the Conservatives could rely on over 2,000 votes in Pelsall. By 2022 it was 1,707. In 2023, 1,395. Now 1,176. The comfort zone has gone. Labour’s fall is even starker — from 680 in 2022 to 510 in 2024, and now a miserable 125. It’s a hollowing out, year by year, until there’s nothing left. What was once a safe two-party fight has become open ground for Reform.
Now set Pelsall alongside the big beasts. Look at Councillor Albert Bore in Ladywood, Birmingham. In 2022 he racked up 1,819 votes and strutted back into the Council Chamber. Impressive? Only until you check the fine print. Turnout there was barely 20%, meaning just one in ten of the electorate actually put their cross next to his name. Compare that with Pelsall: 1,200 votes for Reform on a 32% turnout. By raw numbers, Reform’s “shock win” carries more democratic weight than one of Labour’s safest city fortresses. Think on that.
So could Pelsall be one of the most significant by-elections the nation has yet seen? Probably not. But it’s one hell of a warning. A warning not best ignored.
Because here’s the real point: Pelsall on its own is nothing. A one-off. A curiosity. But add it to the stack — the council by-elections up and down the country, the Assembly vote in Wales that’s looming, the odd Westminster vacancy — and you get the bigger picture. Reform aren’t just lurking at the edges, they’re breaking through.
They’re not only taking Tory votes, they’re shaking loose the stay-at-homes. Polling says as much: a decent chunk of their support comes from people who didn’t bother last time. That’s dynamite in the system, because the major parties build their machines on the assumption they know who turns out and who doesn’t. If Reform can rattle those assumptions, all bets are off.
And the trick is they’re not just ranting at the clouds. In Pelsall they talked about motorbike nuisance, planning rows, transparency at the council. Mundane stuff, but the kind that drives people mad on the doorstep. When you weld that to national anger, you get momentum.
So no, Pelsall isn’t the whole story. But it’s a glimpse of the story unfolding. And the story is simple: Reform are on the march, the old parties are wobbling, and what looked like a protest is starting to look like a movement.
Tremors first, quakes to follow.
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Special thanks to Professor Paul Cadman, Professor Clancy, and of course Andrew Teale for his terrific Local Elections Archive data, which helped shape this analysis.