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Mike Olley's avatar

Richard some fascinating comments and observations - I urge everyone to read Richard's comments in full. And I certainly await the publication of your analysis...🧐

Richard WRIGHT's avatar

I know very little about the council and its pension fund. However it is clear Mike that the Commissioners act outside the democratic process. Their continuing existence here probably reflects the failure of the government to break the City up. Elsewhere councils taken over by Commissioners, such as Northamptonshire, have been broken up and the commissioners have left. Democracy is important but only if one person one vote is respected and equitable. My complete analysis of the 2026 will go on line next week. I hope that it will be of interest to you. However while I was going through the data I began to wonder about the wards themselves. Are they equitable? Does a person’s vote in one ward have the same electoral weight as in another ward? The electoral Register size of one ward ought to approximate to the size of another. Of course there will be some variation up to say 5-10% But what happens when the electorate of one ward is eg 50% larger than another ward. Of course, the Boundary Commission is independent and responsible for boundaries and electoral sizes. But what happens when they get their estimates completely wrong, as happens to be the case with Birmingham. It means that one person’s vote in one ward is worth less than in another ward. This can effect the actual result of the election. In my Analysis of 2026 I go into detail how this affected the result. Here I can simply illustrate the argument. The average electorate for a single member ward in 2026 was 7,796. The average electorate in a double seat ward for a single councillor was 7,516. Already there is a small but manageable discrepancy. But within these averages are huge discrepancies. Here below is the greatest variations from the biggest and smallest electorates for the single and double electoral wards in 2026:

Single member ward.. biggest 10,005… Bordesley and Highgate

smallest 6,806 Castle Vale

Double member ward biggest 18,148. Ladywood

Smallest 11,500. Edgbaston

This discrepancy is way outside the 10% allowed. It border on gerrymandering though I do not believe that it was deliberate to benefit one party or another, though it did. It was caused by a legal requirement to forecast the size of the electorate in ten years time for each ward. This is simple guesswork. The prediction of the boundary commission for 2021 was 813,981 (a bizarre specific number) while this year 2026 the electorate was only 769,445 when it was predicted to be around 840,000. In my analysis I examine this in detail and thus the value of each vote for each party.

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