Aston is very interesting and needs to be set in the context of Ayoub Khan MP who has clearly a deal of influence in that ward and that itself in the Perry Barr constituency... any thoughts ?
Well Richard I'm reading with growing and continuing interest, in a few wards and Lozells will be one of them the notion of clubbing the independents together places a veneer on some massively important dynamics. I also feel there is a need to separate the Kashmiri from Pakistani populations. It can be like calling a Cardiff man an Englishman.. but this is sterling stuff and I feel flattered and honoured you are posting these onto my Substack. Once completed let's turn it into a comprehensive article - be fascinating and informative reading.
I am going through every ward vote in 2026 in BIRMINGHAM, starting with ACOCKS GREEN… and comparing it with 2022. I hope this will be of interest to those who enjoy such things. Here is the first by party…
ACOCKS GREEN (% in 2022 in brackets)
Turnout 32.8% (27%) +5.8%
Liberal Democrats 34.3% (50%) -15.7%
Green 21.6% (3.2%) +18.4%
Reform 21.3% (0%) +21.3%
Labour 13.8% (39.3%) -25.5%
Conservatives 4% (6.5%) -2.5%
Workers Party 2.2% (0%) +2.2%
Trade Unionists 0.8% (1.1%) -0.3%
Of interest is the fall of working class Labour vote to Reform, the extra votes went to Reform and the Greens, and the decline of the Liberal vote largely to the Greens. Perhaps of interest is that a direct switch from Labour to Reform took place here. The Tory vote remained small and changed little.
Both Labour and the Conservatives lost votes heavily. Reform and the Independent were the main beneficiaries. The Liberal lost a third of their vote. Turn out was much higher in 2026, probably fuelled by the two new party groups, Reform and the Independent.
Demographic changes since 2022 reveal an increasing Balkanisation of the ward. The Islamic Independents took virtually half of the vote, mainly from Labour but the 11% increase in voting must have added to their vote. Again here the Liberal Democrat’s lost votes, plausibly to the Greens. The Tories never a factor in the ward were virtually wiped out.
Aston is a divided seat with one Liberal and one independent councillor. The Independents are above listed as a block above even though there are radical differences between some of them. Again here the Liberal Democrats and Labour lost votes to the Independents and less so to the Greens. The Labour vote has been on the slide for years. In the 1990s Labour often got 80% of the vote. By 2026 Labour has lost nearly 3 out of 4 of its votes in the ward. In 2022 the ward was won by the Liberals for the first time since 2008. Demographic changes has almost wiped out the white working class radicalism of the Industrial Revolution, as illustrated by Aston Villa FC. Today the sociologists ‘white flight’ means that Aston Villa supporters drive Villa Park from increasingly Reform towns, such as Nuneaton. In 2022 the Liberal Democrats garnered the immigrant vote. In 2026 Independents were able to win the highest share of that vote.
Here, although the two independent candidates got the largest share of the votes cast, the Green candidate topped the individual poll. Labour and the Tories both did badly, losing between them nearly 64% of what they received in 2022.
Again the two main parties declined. Reform took both seats from the Conservatives, in this socially mixed community. The Greens profited from the collapse of the Labour vote, although in 2022 only one Green candidate stood. The Liberal vote shrank slightly, in line with other wards; in most areas the Greens replaced the Liberal as the left of centre alternative to Labour. It might be argued that the increasing polarisation of society has shrunk and with it the electoral home of the Liberal Democrats. The middle ground is ceasing to exist.
The Greens won both seats from Labour. Again the share of the vote for the traditional two main parts sank from 79.1% to 26.4%. In 2018 the share of the vote of the two main parties was even higher at over 91%; how the mighty have fallen! This huge decline is more apparent when reflected in votes. Despite the fact that the votes in creased by over 15%, Labour’s actual vote fell from over 4,100 to 1,990, meaning that less than half who voted Labour in 2022 did so in 2026. Furthermore the vote of just over 4,100 in 2022 was smaller than the nearly 5,000 votes cast for the party in 2018. Thus Labour has lost nearly 60% of its vote in 8 years. The situation is just as bad for the Tories, although they start from a lower voter base. Their lost vote went almost exclusively to Reform, which was the other beneficiary on the night. Finally the Liberal Democrats were squeezed virtually to extinction. Whether the trend in Billesley away from Labour and the Tories will continue is impossible to say but it has been quite marked over the last decade. Their vote other factor is turnout. When voters are offered a smorgasbord of parties capable of winning voters turn out in higher numbers.
Aston is very interesting and needs to be set in the context of Ayoub Khan MP who has clearly a deal of influence in that ward and that itself in the Perry Barr constituency... any thoughts ?
Well Richard I'm reading with growing and continuing interest, in a few wards and Lozells will be one of them the notion of clubbing the independents together places a veneer on some massively important dynamics. I also feel there is a need to separate the Kashmiri from Pakistani populations. It can be like calling a Cardiff man an Englishman.. but this is sterling stuff and I feel flattered and honoured you are posting these onto my Substack. Once completed let's turn it into a comprehensive article - be fascinating and informative reading.
Gosh that's fascinating - look forward to seeing more - thank you 👍
I am going through every ward vote in 2026 in BIRMINGHAM, starting with ACOCKS GREEN… and comparing it with 2022. I hope this will be of interest to those who enjoy such things. Here is the first by party…
ACOCKS GREEN (% in 2022 in brackets)
Turnout 32.8% (27%) +5.8%
Liberal Democrats 34.3% (50%) -15.7%
Green 21.6% (3.2%) +18.4%
Reform 21.3% (0%) +21.3%
Labour 13.8% (39.3%) -25.5%
Conservatives 4% (6.5%) -2.5%
Workers Party 2.2% (0%) +2.2%
Trade Unionists 0.8% (1.1%) -0.3%
Of interest is the fall of working class Labour vote to Reform, the extra votes went to Reform and the Greens, and the decline of the Liberal vote largely to the Greens. Perhaps of interest is that a direct switch from Labour to Reform took place here. The Tory vote remained small and changed little.
More wards will follow over the next few days.
ALLENS CROSS
Turnout 37.6% (27.2%) + 10.4%
Reform 34.3% (0%) + 34.3%
Independent 23.5% (0%) +23.5%
Labour 16.3% (46%) -29.7%
Green 13.8% (5.6%) +8.2%
Conservatives 9.4% (45.3%) -35.9%
Liberal Democrats 2.2% (3.1%) -0.9%
Both Labour and the Conservatives lost votes heavily. Reform and the Independent were the main beneficiaries. The Liberal lost a third of their vote. Turn out was much higher in 2026, probably fuelled by the two new party groups, Reform and the Independent.
ALUM ROCK
Turnout 41.5% (30.3%) + 11.2%
Independent 49.9% (0%) +49.9%
Labour 35.2% (80.4%) -45.2%
Green 8.2% (0%) +8.2%
Liberal Democrat’s 4.2% (16.22%) -8%
Reform 1.9% (0%) +1.9%
Conservatives 0.4% (3.4%) -3%
Demographic changes since 2022 reveal an increasing Balkanisation of the ward. The Islamic Independents took virtually half of the vote, mainly from Labour but the 11% increase in voting must have added to their vote. Again here the Liberal Democrat’s lost votes, plausibly to the Greens. The Tories never a factor in the ward were virtually wiped out.
ASTON
Turnout 41.8% (40%) +1.8%
Independents 32.7% (0%) +32.7%
Liberal Democrats 32% (49.7%) -17.7%
Labour 22.9% (41.9%) -19%
Greens 8.7% (0%) +8.7%
Reform 1.9% (0%) +1.9%
Conservatives 0.9% (3.5%) -2.6%
Aston is a divided seat with one Liberal and one independent councillor. The Independents are above listed as a block above even though there are radical differences between some of them. Again here the Liberal Democrats and Labour lost votes to the Independents and less so to the Greens. The Labour vote has been on the slide for years. In the 1990s Labour often got 80% of the vote. By 2026 Labour has lost nearly 3 out of 4 of its votes in the ward. In 2022 the ward was won by the Liberals for the first time since 2008. Demographic changes has almost wiped out the white working class radicalism of the Industrial Revolution, as illustrated by Aston Villa FC. Today the sociologists ‘white flight’ means that Aston Villa supporters drive Villa Park from increasingly Reform towns, such as Nuneaton. In 2022 the Liberal Democrats garnered the immigrant vote. In 2026 Independents were able to win the highest share of that vote.
BALSALL HEATH WEST
Turnout 35.7% (30%) +5.7%
Independents 35.3% (0%) +35.3%
Greens 34.5% (5.4%) +29.1%
Labour 17.1% (51.8%) -34.7%
Liberal Democrats 4.8% (6.8%) -2%
Reform 5.2% (0%) +5.2%
Conservatives 3% (31%) -28%
Here, although the two independent candidates got the largest share of the votes cast, the Green candidate topped the individual poll. Labour and the Tories both did badly, losing between them nearly 64% of what they received in 2022.
BARTLEY GREEN
Turnout 33.7% (28.3%) +5.4%
Reform 35.4% (0%) +35.4%
Conservatives 28.3% (48.7%) -20.4%
Labour 16.8% (43.8%) -27%
Greens 15.1% (3.6%) +11.5%
Liberal Democrats 4.4% (8%) -3.6%
Again the two main parties declined. Reform took both seats from the Conservatives, in this socially mixed community. The Greens profited from the collapse of the Labour vote, although in 2022 only one Green candidate stood. The Liberal vote shrank slightly, in line with other wards; in most areas the Greens replaced the Liberal as the left of centre alternative to Labour. It might be argued that the increasing polarisation of society has shrunk and with it the electoral home of the Liberal Democrats. The middle ground is ceasing to exist.
BILLESLEY
Turnout 44% (28.8%) +15.2%
Greens 46.7% (7.8%) +38.9%
Reform 24.9% (0%) +24.9%
Labour 17.4% (52.6%) -35.2%
Conservatives 9% (32.6%) -23.6%
Liberal Democrats 2% (5.8%) -3.8%
The Greens won both seats from Labour. Again the share of the vote for the traditional two main parts sank from 79.1% to 26.4%. In 2018 the share of the vote of the two main parties was even higher at over 91%; how the mighty have fallen! This huge decline is more apparent when reflected in votes. Despite the fact that the votes in creased by over 15%, Labour’s actual vote fell from over 4,100 to 1,990, meaning that less than half who voted Labour in 2022 did so in 2026. Furthermore the vote of just over 4,100 in 2022 was smaller than the nearly 5,000 votes cast for the party in 2018. Thus Labour has lost nearly 60% of its vote in 8 years. The situation is just as bad for the Tories, although they start from a lower voter base. Their lost vote went almost exclusively to Reform, which was the other beneficiary on the night. Finally the Liberal Democrats were squeezed virtually to extinction. Whether the trend in Billesley away from Labour and the Tories will continue is impossible to say but it has been quite marked over the last decade. Their vote other factor is turnout. When voters are offered a smorgasbord of parties capable of winning voters turn out in higher numbers.